[1]

Only oil and gas companies make that kind of money, and they haven't seen a $10 billion quarter since 2011. Yet Apple's stock fell 8% on Tuesday.

Apple's $13.1 billion quarter was the 5th highest of all time - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech

WTF, Drew?

 

[79]

Because useless anal-cysts said they'd sell 55 million iPhones, not 51m. They also claim they're not branching out enough, so that's another reason.

I have to say, whether you're talking Apple, Google, MS, or whoever, "analysts" are friggin' useless, IMO. They truly seem to pull numbers out of their asses, and when the company in question doesn't meet their expectations, the gossiping school girls known as the stock market punishes the company. Meanwhile, a company like Amazon, who continues bleeding money, has their stock go up, simply due to speculation about the future, and expansion.

But WTF do I know, I'm just a dumb IT guy.

EDIT

I also hate shithead rich douchebags like Carl Icahn, who don't give two fucks about the actual products/services of the companies he invests in (Apple, Dell, Netflix, etc), and just does it to strong-arm companies into doing what he wants to make a quick buck.

 

[darren]

I just saw that Toyota is forecasting an $18 billion profit for the year. The world's largest auto maker expects to make just over 30% more in a whole year than Apple made last quarter. That's just staggering.

Clearly, having a focused product line isn't hurting Apple at all. I totally don't understand analysts. Even when Apple destroys analyst expectations, they get punished on the market. That's always been the case with Apple: Positive news = negative stock performance.

 

[giannifive]

Meanwhile, a company like Amazon, who continues bleeding money, has their stock go up, simply due to speculation about the future, and expansion.

The best quote I heard about Amazon is that it's a charitable organization propped up by wealthy investors. :lol: That's scarily accurate.

 

[79]

I just saw that Toyota is forecasting an $18 billion profit for the year. The world's largest auto maker expects to make just over 30% more in a whole year than Apple made last quarter. That's just staggering.

Clearly, having a focused product line isn't hurting Apple at all. I totally don't understand analysts. Even when Apple destroys analyst expectations, they get punished on the market. That's always been the case with Apple: Positive news = negative stock performance.

From what I've heard from people more knowledgeable than I, is that investors and analysts also hate the fact that Apple is pretty tightlipped about their future roadmap, unlike other tech companies.

The best quote I heard about Amazon is that it's a charitable organization propped up by wealthy investors. :lol: That's scarily accurate.

Yeah, as much as I love Amazon, I'm waiting for the bottom to drop out on that too.

 

[Josh]

Analyst projections are used to value the stock. Analysts are probably over-valuing Apple stock. Earning projections come out, and the stock drops to be in line with reality.

I hardly see the issue. :shrug:

 

[briansol]

Analyst projections are used to value the stock. Analysts are probably over-valuing Apple stock. Earning projections come out, and the stock drops to be in line with reality.

I hardly see the issue. :shrug:

this.

Analysts are in this to make money. They are always biased.

ignore them.
do your own DD.
look at profit/loss/beta and P/E metrics coupled over what you see in reality (do you see coke machines everywhere, more altimas than camrys? who of your friends has amazon prime, etc etc) and draw conclusions of what you think.

Personally, I see no long term to apple. I hold no shares.
everything apple does, someone else does-- and usually does better-- and usually for less.

iTunes = play/amazon
iPhone = android/samsung
ibooks = chrome, windows8, etc
ipads = tabs
ipods = being phased out on both sides by phones doing it all.

they have nothing 'original' any more. All they have is competition eating away at their once strong foot hold in a niche market.

their numbers may be good in dollar figures, but they are losing market share, especially in emerging markets.

More and more people I know are starting to see that their iDevice's are a waste of money after they break and end up at the competition for a cheaper price point. The lack of compatibility is annoying people too-- having to buy new power cords, car chargers, etc etc... And then they cost $80 instead of $4 too.

The 'starbucks' generation of users is slowly fazing out. the latest run of kids entering the desired market are different. They aren't facebookers... they are snapchatters.

 

[Drew]

I WILL be weighing in on this, but on a super high level Jeff's right.

Apple was expected to move 55m units, and only moved 51, about 7.3% below expectation. Thus, the stock fell, because that forecast had already been priced into the market.

Two comments I'll make, however - 1.) the analysts should have known better; every "real" person I talked to thought that the 5C had missed its price point by $100, so this was a bit of groupthink, and 2.) after quarters of concern over dteriorating margins, Apple's margins actually improved as more people went for the flagship 5S than the cheaper 5C. This isn't a bad thing.

I'd call this a good dip to buy, except the growing speculation of Apple looking at a 5-6" screen for the iPhone 6 worries me - Apple following Samsung's lead here would be kind of a reversal for a manufacturer positioned as an industry leader (not follower), and their weakening their design convictions doesn't sound like a good sign to me.

Typical disclaimer, no positions in AAPL, no immediate plans to open one, this is not constituted as investment advice, investments need to be tailored to your individual situation, etc.

 

[briansol]

A big play is the 'partnership' google and Samsung have made for patents too. This is horrible for apple

 

[79]

this.

Analysts are in this to make money. They are always biased.

ignore them.
do your own DD.
look at profit/loss/beta and P/E metrics coupled over what you see in reality (do you see coke machines everywhere, more altimas than camrys? who of your friends has amazon prime, etc etc) and draw conclusions of what you think.

Personally, I see no long term to apple. I hold no shares.
everything apple does, someone else does-- and usually does better-- and usually for less.

iTunes = play/amazon
iPhone = android/samsung
ibooks = chrome, windows8, etc
ipads = tabs
ipods = being phased out on both sides by phones doing it all.

they have nothing 'original' any more. All they have is competition eating away at their once strong foot hold in a niche market.

their numbers may be good in dollar figures, but they are losing market share, especially in emerging markets.

More and more people I know are starting to see that their iDevice's are a waste of money after they break and end up at the competition for a cheaper price point. The lack of compatibility is annoying people too-- having to buy new power cords, car chargers, etc etc... And then they cost $80 instead of $4 too.

The 'starbucks' generation of users is slowly fazing out. the latest run of kids entering the desired market are different. They aren't facebookers... they are snapchatters.

You've got a shit-ton of personal bias in here. This isn't an Adam/Jeff thread. If I were to follow your advice, I'd be heavily investing in Apple, simply because I see more iPhones/iPads/Macs wherever I go than I do their competitors. That's not exactly a good metric of its investment quality, because I know the overall worldwide reality of it is quite different.

EDIT

Another thing is that they actually gained US marketshare last quarter, which again not making this an Android/iOS thread, but I would have assumed investors would have liked that.

http://www.geekwire.com/2014/iphone-gains-ground-android-windows-phone-slips-u-s-market/

They also signed a 3-year deal with China Mobile. Both of these things signify growth, if not innovation, so I would have thought it would have had a positive effect on their stock price. Guess not.

http://business.time.com/2013/12/22/apple-iphone-china-mobile/

 

[Josh]

I WILL be weighing in on this, but on a super high level Josh is right.

FTFY

Typical disclaimer, no positions in AAPL, no immediate plans to open one, this is not constituted as investment advice, investments need to be tailored to your individual situation, etc.

:lol:

 

[darren]

Drew needs a special signature just for this section.

 

[elq]

Meanwhile, a company like Amazon, who continues bleeding money, has their stock go up, simply due to speculation about the future, and expansion.

Amazon is an odd duck... they've essentially been building a competitive mote for the last decade, reinvesting all of their profits allowing them to grow into the horrible hydra of a company. When they decide to start monetizing, they will be scary. Really scary.

 

[Drew]

EDIT

Another thing is that they actually gained US marketshare last quarter, which again not making this an Android/iOS thread, but I would have assumed investors would have liked that.

iPhone gains ground on Android; Windows Phone slips in U.S. market - GeekWire

They also signed a 3-year deal with China Mobile. Both of these things signify growth, if not innovation, so I would have thought it would have had a positive effect on their stock price. Guess not.

Apple Signs iPhone Deal With China Mobile | TIME.com

Yeah, brian, you're letting your personal preferences impact your investment outlook here (and trust me, as a liberal in a conservative industry I can relate, but at the end of the day personal politics matter way less than simply being right) - AAPL IS growing market share, and IMO the thing they have going for them is their growth tends to be sticky - people who buy Apple products tend to continue buying them (I've gone from an iPod, to an iPhone, to an iMac in recent years, speaking anecdotally), while for the most part people who buy their competitors' products tend to be a little less so (Samsung is interesting in the smartphone space because you do get some very techny customors who refuse to switch due to the more open archetecture platform, but that's obviously a minority).

China will be interesting, with a recent government corruption crackdown and even a base phone that, unsubsidized, is very expensive compared to homegrown products leading to less luxury/conspicuous consumtion spending overall than had been expected in recent years prior to this crackdown as well as a more limited potential market for iPhones, and recent market events have hit firms with significant exposure to China harder than ones without. But it bears watching.

 

[79]

Yeah, brian, you're letting your personal preferences impact your investment outlook here (and trust me, as a liberal in a conservative industry I can relate, but at the end of the day personal politics matter way less than simply being right) - AAPL IS growing market share, and IMO the thing they have going for them is their growth tends to be sticky - people who buy Apple products tend to continue buying them (I've gone from an iPod, to an iPhone, to an iMac in recent years, speaking anecdotally), while for the most part people who buy their competitors' products tend to be a little less so (Samsung is interesting in the smartphone space because you do get some very techny customors who refuse to switch due to the more open archetecture platform, but that's obviously a minority).

China will be interesting, with a recent government corruption crackdown and even a base phone that, unsubsidized, is very expensive compared to homegrown products leading to less luxury/conspicuous consumtion spending overall than had been expected in recent years prior to this crackdown as well as a more limited potential market for iPhones, and recent market events have hit firms with significant exposure to China harder than ones without. But it bears watching.

Also notable is that for the first time in their history, they're beginning to manufacture a discontinued item for an emerging market, in this case the iPhone 4 for India. While I question how successful it'll be, given the 4's age (the 4s would have been a better choice), it's an interesting angle, and shows that Apple does indeed care about emerging markets.

 

[Hebo]

Anecdotally speaking I went from iphone to android and from osx to windows
I also see a lot more samsung and sony on the subway opposed to earlier when everyone was looking at an iphone.
I also notice an increasing amount of anti-apple people too, kind of annoying because that's my job! ;P
All anecdotally of course.

 

[Drew]

Anecdotally speaking I went from iphone to android and from osx to windows
I also see a lot more samsung and sony on the subway opposed to earlier when everyone was looking at an iphone.
I also notice an increasing amount of anti-apple people too, kind of annoying because that's my job! ;P
All anecdotally of course.

Congrats, you're the one person I can actually think of. :lol:

I'm sure these things are regionalized, and maybe people with iphones just play with them a lot more than people with other smartphones, but here in Boston I'd estimate two out of three people I see on the T with a phone have an iphone. :shrug:

 

[Drew]

By the way, I ran a super unscientific survey on my commute this morning - on my car on the T, I saw two people playing with non-Apple smartphones, a third I thought wasn't an Apple until I realized it was an iphone in a curved battery pack/case, two e-readers (one a Kindle, the second I couldn't ID from a distance but wasn't an iPad)... and probably 8 for-sure, confirmed, definite iPhones. In addition, there were a whole bunch of people listening to something wearing what looked like stock Apple headphones, though I never saw the devices. Even if we ignore them, more people were using iPhones then all other smart devices put together by a ratio of 2:1.

Again, nonscientific survey here, based on one car of one train in one city, at 8 in the morning. Accordingly, there's a strong bias towards young urban professionals. However, it's worth keeping in mind that 1.) that's probably the chief smartphone demographic, and 2.) this is the "technology" forum of a guitar site on the internet, which is sort of a self-selecting group of tech nerds who get really particular about how the details of their technology work. For rank and file Americans, they're less concerned about configuring what they can see on their lock screens and what sort of 3rd party programs they can run or whaever other reasons the anti-Apple crowd doesn't like iPhones - they just want something "cool" and user-friendly. That seems to be Apple. :shrug:

 

[Hebo]

If we look at the scientific surveys however I believe 80% was the last number I saw for Androids marketshare worldwide. Probably a bit lower in the US alone though.

The problem with observing is that you see what you have yourself way easier. It's like when I went to the hairdresser a couple of years ago, she asked what kind of haircut I wanted and I just said whatever, just make it shorter. Then she recommended what she called the Swedish haircut, you know the one with shorter on the sides and longer on the top (probably called something else outside of Norway )

There.

And then when I walked around I suddenly saw EVERYONE, well, not everyone, but A LOT of guys had it. Haha, hadn't even noticed before.

This happens with a lot of other things too. Like you get interested in some new guitar manufacturer and suddenly you notice the brand way more often than you used to before.

Luckily though, there's hard facts on the matter ;D

 

[darren]

How are the market share numbers calculated, though? Year-over-year sales? Devices still in service? Apple users tend to keep their devices for much longer upgrade cycles than others, in my experience.