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NSLALP
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Good to see that Corporatism is alive and well. So much for a sustainable recovery.

To add on to this analysis:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/job-market162.html

This outlook dovetails with the picture of commercial lending that was painted for me at a panel I recently attended. The Fed has pumped the banking industry full of liquidity, but even with only moderately increased lending standards, commercial lending is generally flat. Most new business at commercial banks are account transfers and new loans for old customers, perhaps for maintenance or modest expansion. There is almost nothing in the way of genuine start-ups. The lack of a stable legal environment is chilling such risky activity.
 

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I am Groot
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We haven't had a real recovery since the 90s. The 2000s lost jobs and wages stagnated. I have the feeling this one will be going the opposite direction.
 

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Though, the picture isn't all gloom - inflation is currently at record lows (since I believe 1958 when we began calculating the CPI), consumer spending is higher than expected, and the new unemployment claims for this week are the most encouraging since July of 2008.

This outlook dovetails with the picture of commercial lending that was painted for me at a panel I recently attended. The Fed has pumped the banking industry full of liquidity, but even with only moderately increased lending standards, commercial lending is generally flat. Most new business at commercial banks are account transfers and new loans for old customers, perhaps for maintenance or modest expansion. There is almost nothing in the way of genuine start-ups. The lack of a stable legal environment is chilling such risky activity.
That's actually not necessarily such a bad thing, when you consider how lax credit standards had gotten by 2007. With the bar so low, even a moderate increase would be enough to seriously dampen credit availability from "anyone with a pulse" to "anyone with a credible chance to pay us back." Arguably cheap credit is what got us into this mess, first with the, um, overly enthusiastic lending to dot com startups and then the retreat to safety in home equity, with very low lending standards driving prices way up and creating an incredibly high risk of default if economic conditions slipped. Which they did.

It's not a super rosy picture by any means, but we're seeing progress and you don't expect sunshine, rainbows, and unicorns when we desparately need to readjust America's attitude toward debt anyway.
 

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NSLALP
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I'm perfectly fine with the lending standards, but that's not what's keeping commercial activity down. Nobody's even coming and inquiring about loans. Nobody wants to borrow.
 

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I'm perfectly fine with the lending standards, but that's not what's keeping commercial activity down. Nobody's even coming and inquiring about loans. Nobody wants to borrow.
Look to consumer demand - once that begins to pick up (and, again, with readjusting American attitudes towards debt, saving rates are coming up as we pay down existing debt and take on less new debt, so this may be some time yet) interest in small business loans will follow.

I think a lot of people forget just how much of a fundamental shift it is for Americans to stop spending begin their means. Dave, this also might have an impact on the labor markets - tough to say how effective this will be, but as the "Oh, I can just charge it" attitude gradually disperses, demand for higher wages should pick up somewhat and we might see salaries begin to increase again. That may be optimism, of course - it depends how much of the stagnation was due to employers having the upper hand vs people caring less because their salary and their standard of living were less immediately tied together.
 
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